Everything is happening: Recapping Round 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs (and Predicting Round 2)
Last year, my Stanley Cup predictions bracket got off to a great start — just one wrong pick was quite the flex. And now, a year later, I’ve proven what it feels like I knew all along — I just got lucky last year. It also doesn’t help that this year’s first round was absolutely insane. With that being said, let’s look at what happened, and my guesses on what’s coming up.
Western Conference Recap
Colorado/Seattle: SEATTLE in 7 (Prediction: COL in 5)
So… uh, getting off to a real solid start with mistake number one — assuming the Seattle Kraken weren’t good enough to take down the reigning champions in Colorado. I also didn’t expect Philipp Grubauer to step up and become a stud. But, here we are. Seattle has pulled the ultimate upset. Certainly nothing crazier could happen in this round. Right?
Don’t worry, Avs fans. You still have a ring to look back on. Defending is not easy, as history has proven — just ignore Tampa Bay’s run they had going.
Dallas/Minnesota: DALLAS in 6 (Prediction: DAL in 6)
And just like that, we’re back. Never left, really. Dallas did what I expected, to be totally honest. Jake Oettinger stepped up and proved that he is the goalie that the Stars needs. The scoring showed up. Dallas cruises to the second round, where they’ll face the Kraken — a round that should prove pretty interesting.
The Wild… oh, Minnesota. I’m not sure what to say. It just wasn’t the Wild’s year. The goaltending couldn’t hold back the Dallas forward core — not an easy task, but still. The scoring just couldn’t keep up. Sadly, the Wild’s push for a deep run will wait another year.
Vegas/Winnipeg: VEGAS in 5 (Prediction: WPG in 6)
Can’t say I didn’t try to predict an upset happening. I just wish I picked the right one. The Jets came in hanging on to a playoff spot — and while I thought there was a chance they put on their big kid shoes and dig into a deep battle against the Golden Knights, they just couldn’t keep it up. The first couple games looked hopeful for upset seekers — but that Vegas offense is just too good. Vegas cruises through the Jets to the second round.
Winnipeg, it’s time to start looking at big questions. Scheifele. Wheeler and more are due for new contracts in the next year — is it time to blow it up? Dubois is already looking at properties in Montreal at this point, but what about the rest of the gang? This team hasn’t seemed the same since Dustin Byfuglien walked away from the sport.
Edmonton/Los Angeles: EDMONTON in 6 (Prediction: EDM in 6)
Hey look, another perfect prediction from Nate! I may have had some big misses, but fifty percent is a pass in my books, so we’ll take it. The Kings (specifically, Adrian Kempe) put up a heck of a battle. This Los Angeles team is going to be good, and they’re getting there quickly. The goaltending just couldn’t quite keep that dynamic Oilers scoring core down. But they’ll be back.
The Oilers survive a bit of a scare, and push forward to a matchup with Vegas that, if I’m being honest, just screams “seven games,” doesn’t it? The scoring is up — Draisatl really stepped up for this round. The goaltending has been good enough. Only time will tell what round two has in store.
Eastern Conference
Boston/Florida: FLORIDA in 7 (Prediction: BOS in 5)
Oh boy, the eastern guesses are off to a devastating start, eh? Look, the President’s Trophy curse was bound to strike down the Bruins at some point, but I don’t know if anybody had it happening in the very first round. And look, we can talk about the decision to start Swayman in game seven, but Ullmark was cooked, and it was clear that the Panthers found out something was up. I’m just sad for Patrice Bergeron, man. That hug with Marchand at the end… credit to the camera operator that caught that — that’s a tough sight for a guy who’s given so much to the game.
Hey Panthers fans, are you ready for a real treat? You get to face the winners of the Tampa/Toronto series — you get either the dynasty of the Lightning, or the Leafs break through and are ready to push forward all the way. I just hope that goaltending holds up. Yes, this is foreshadowing to my predictions for round two.
Toronto/Tampa Bay: TORONTO in 6 (Prediction: TOR in 7)
Kids, if you’re reading, just skip this line. Nate’s going to use some words that are a bit questionable — okay, they’re gone? Holy shit, the Leafs actually did the thing. They pushed Tampa to the brink, scared the living heck out of their fanbase in game five, then took care of business (albeit barely) in game six, thanks to John Tavares and an overtime winner that cements him as a Leafs legend. Enjoy the second round, Toronto. That playoff drought was old enough to buy an overpriced beer at Scotiabank Arena at this point. You’ve waited long enough.
Tampa, Tampa, Tampa. Someone had to lose to these Leafs sooner or later, and it appears you’ve been chosen. It’s not as embarrassing as your sweep at the hands of — checks notes — ah yes, Columbus… didn’t forget about that at all — but it’s tough. But, Tampa will be right back here next year, I’m sure. Maybe a few tweaks, but this core is still together.
Carolina/New York Islanders: CAROLINA in 6 (Prediction: CAR in 6)
The long story short to this whole writeup — if I had a team winning in six, I pretty much was guaranteed to have it right. Dallas, Edmonton, and now Carolina. I always thought this series had the potential to go the distance, and we almost got there too — but, the team that just squeezed into these playoffs in New York just couldn’t get over the mountain in Raleigh.
The Canes are off to the second round — and with this bracket, who knows how far they could go, at this point. Just give me a stable goaltending situation. I can’t handle guessing who’s starting for a team in the playoffs, man.
New York Rangers/New Jersey: NEW JERSEY in 7 (Prediction: NYR in 7)
Hey, if you replace the “JERSEY” with “YORK”, I’d have another correct guess! But alas, the hockey gods wouldn’t allow what would technically have been considered an upset, somehow. This series ended up being a real classic — the Devils looked washed at the start of this — I thought the Rangers may have been on their way to a quick dash to the second round. And then, New Jersey made a goaltending change. Boy, what a difference that made. The Devils turned this whole thing upside down — and now they’re off to round two, for the first time in over a decade.
Rangers management, I have a question. Was it worth giving up your whole future for Kane and Tarasenko? Look, they’re great players. But it didn’t get you over the hump in round one. A lot of wondering “what happened” may be asked, but I have the answer — Panarin and Zibanejad may as well be on milk cartons in the tri-state area, because we really didn’t see them here. They’ll need to step up next year — and yes, I see no reason the Rangers aren’t back in the playoffs come 2024.
Round 2 Predictions
Screw it, Florida/Seattle final at this point. I couldn’t tell you where I think this is going after one of the craziest first rounds of playoff hockey I’ve ever seen, but I’m still going to try. It’s time to make some more jinxes.
Seattle/Dallas: Dallas in 6
If you’ve read my first round predictions, you’ll know how badly I’d love to see Seattle go on a deep run. But, I also said that thinking “a deep run” was a good six or seven against Colorado, not winning a round. So, now I have a fence to lay on. But, in this series, I’m going with my gut — and by that, I mean I’m going with a goaltending battle.
You need goaltending to win a championship, and Dallas holds the clear edge here in that category. I’ve said it a million times, but Jake Oettinger just puts his foot on the gas come playoff time — one of the best in the business right now, and I see that propelling this Stars team to a final four. Seattle could break through this with some of that elite scoring we saw in the regular season, but Jared McCann being out won’t help that. We’ll see how quickly he gets back in the lineup, and how effective he can be.
Vegas/Edmonton: Edmonton in 7
I said many paragraphs ago — this has “seven” written all over it. Two teams that live and die on scoring, have good, but not incredible defense in my opinion, oh yeah. This is bound to be good. So, watch it be a sweep now that I’ve said that.
I’m putting my money on the Oilers here for one reason — I don’t trust Vegas’ goaltending situation. I know Laurent Brossoit (cue the “you’re our backup! chants in Winnipeg) held his ground in the first round, but that was against a depleted Jets lineup. This is McDavid, Draisatl and the gang we’re talking about here. That’s a tough task. I think Edmonton gets it done here, setting up a very interesting conference final.
Florida/Toronto: Toronto in 6
I can’t believe (or, be-leaf, as some would say) I’m picking Toronto again, but here we are. They slayed their demons in round one, and something tells me that’s just the start. This team is good, and we all knew that. It was more about getting past that dreaded first round. Now we’re here, and who knows what can happen? If Samsonov can keep up his goaltending and the scoring can keep, well, scoring, this could be quick.
Panthers fans, I’m happy for you. Taking out the big, bad Bruins was no small task. But, similar to Vegas, I question the goaltending situation in Florida. Is Sergei Bobrovsky your number one now? Do you trust he can get you past the Leafs forward core? I don’t know if he can. The matchup of defense is intriguing though, I will say that. This could be a fun series if the goaltending for both sides stands tall.
Carolina/New Jersey: Carolina in 6
Something, something, worried about goaltending. Are you shocked at this point? I may as well pick my round two winners based on save percentage. But yes, that’s a big part of my reasoning for this pick too. The New Jersey Devils went and kicked out the Rangers, something many (including notably, myself) thought to be impossible, despite the seeding. But can Akira Schmid keep this up? He’s been really solid, I won’t lie. But the Rangers had two forwards who weren’t producing — Carolina doesn’t really have that issue right now.
The Canes have a bit of a goaltending predicament of their own. Andersen or Raanta (or Kochetkov, if you’re feeling lucky)? I’m saying Freddy — he got you here, but that’s something we’ll have to see. I still like the Carolina lineup more on paper, though. That being said, I wouldn’t be shocked if this is one of the series I look back on thinking “what was I thinking?”.
There you have it — round one is in the books, and we’re suddenly down a handful of teams. Similar to my first predictions these playoffs, I feel relatively okay with these second round picks, but there could be some fun coming up. It’s time to get into the big games now. Enjoy.
