Let The Fun Begin — Predicting the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs’ First Round
I specifically remember my 2022 bracket for one thing over most others — the blandness.
That may sound a little self-deprecating, but I promise that’s not the intended effect here. I just feel like, in hindsight, my bracket last season was filled with, for the most part, what most fans expected to happen. The biggest “upset”, if you could even call it one, was me calling the Leafs/Lightning series in favour of Toronto — and we all know how that prediction went.
This year, however, I’ve really stepped up to the plate with a few wild calls. And as the annual chase for Lord Stanley begins tonight, it’s time to reveal my decisions — and why I chose who I did.
Western Conference
Colorado/Seattle: Colorado in 5
Kraken fans, if it’s any consolation, I would love to see an upset here. I think Seattle is going to have an absolutely insane playoff atmosphere, and I hope it’s not just for a couple games. And there’s reason to believe that’s possible, too. Jared McCann had a breakout season up front, as did Vince Dunn on the blue line.
The goal scoring has been the real story for Seattle this year, and it’s what got them to this point. Over 3.5 goals per game is a great number. But the goaltending has me worried. Martin Jones and Philip Grubauer haven’t been bad, but a combined save percentage of .886% isn’t going to cut it against the Avalanche.
In Colorado, what started as a season of concern has turned back to business as usual. The scoring is back, and losing Darcy Kuemper hasn’t slowed down the Avs at all, as most expected. There are a few injuries to be worried about, but I don’t expect that to stop them here. Avalanche in a quick five.
Dallas/Minnesota: Dallas in 6
This series has me a bit puzzled, if I’m honest. There’s a simple reason I picked Dallas to win this series (besides their overall seeding, which often is a fair indicator of what’s to come, in fairness). But Wild fans, don’t fret — I think you have a shot here. It’s the battle of the North Stars franchises, baby.
First up, Minnesota — a team that coming into this season, I noted was preparing to enter the age of salary cap restrictions, and that wasn’t totally wrong. And yet, they still played the “banker” role for a handful of deadline deals, and comfortably made the playoffs. Marc-Andre Fleury is still a solid goaltender, and Filip Gustavsson was even better than him. A very good tandem in net never hurts.
Okay, now let’s get to the main reason I picked Dallas — it’s the same reason they nearly made it out of the first round last season — Jake Oettinger. After the full season in Dallas, he finished tied for second in the NHL in shutouts. Now, tack on the fact that the Stars have depth for once, while still having the star power in Benn/Seguin/Robertson and the gang up front, and it’s hard to not expect them to take this. I’m giving Minnesota a couple wins here, but I still think we’ll be seeing victory green at the end of this one — Stars in six.
Vegas/Winnipeg: Winnipeg in 6
For those of you who just spit out your beverage reading this, I get it. And as a Jets fan myself, I will absolutely mark this with a note: there’s some bias here, I’m sure of it. That being said, I don’t think this upset (and it would be a big one, no doubt) is too far-fetched.
Vegas is still doing the typical Vegas thing — running through the regular season, winning their division (albeit, barely) and landing the top seed in the west. There’s not much else to say here — Mark Stone coming back off the, ahem, LTIR (I know, I know) will be a big boost for an already solid Golden Knights offense. And if there’s one thing we know, it’s that they can win in the playoffs. They have a history of it, even if their total franchise history is still rather short.
But y’know what? I’m gonna call it — and maybe jinx it, too. Connor Hellebuyck is a playoff performer, and I’ll take him in net over the multi-goalie combination that Vegas threw on the ice this season. I don’t even have a solid clue who the Golden Knights will be starting come Game 1, though my guess would be on former Jet Laurent Brossoit. Whomever it is, I can see the Jets upsetting the number one seed here. Their offense is still good, and when your goaltender is a brick wall, there’s always a chance at revenge for a Conference Final matchup a few years ago for Winnipeg — Jets in six. I will now accept your laughter.
Edmonton/Los Angeles: Edmonton in 6
A bit of backstory, first — in August 2022, I personally moved to Edmonton from Halifax. And after just over half a year living here, I must say — Edmonton is a hockey city, no doubt about it. This city loves the Oilers, and it’s hard not to. And with a rematch of last year’s first round, this prediction didn’t take long.
Los Angeles is here thanks to some solid seasons from Anze Kopitar (shocker), Kevin Fiala, as well as Kempe, Arvidsson and more. They bring scoring to the table, and a sturdy defense. I’d love to talk about how much of a shot they have here — and there’s always a chance, don’t forget that. The Kings didn’t squeak into these playoffs — they’re here and they deserve to be.
But, it’s hard to see any outcome other than the Oilers running through them, in my eyes. Yes, I probably am a bit biased here, similar to my Jets pick — but this isn’t an upset, this is the very likely outcome. The Oilers are back as a favourite to make a deep run, and this time, they’re pissed.
Connor McDavid decided on day one this season, he wasn’t messing around anymore. He, once again, is the best hockey player in the world, and it’s not close. And add on the deadline move to bring in Mattias Ekholm — which has looked absolutely genius so far — and the goaltending tandem of Stuart Skinner and Jack Campbell, and this team looks set to go further than they did last year. I picked them to go all the way for a reason. I think they have a real shot here. Oilers in six.
Eastern Conference
Boston/Florida: Boston in 5
I’ll get right to it — Florida is in a real David/Goliath situation here. The Bruins are terrifying, and there’s no easier way to put it. Best team in the league this year, and it’s a runaway.
The Panthers are experiencing the Paul Maurice coaching that Jets fans warned everyone about after his departure from Winnipeg — a true roller coaster ride. Florida made some big moves last offseason, in particular, bringing in Matthew Thachuk from Calgary in the blockbuster that saw Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar head north of the border. Has it helped? That’s up for debate. Florida is still a good team, but there’s no doubt they took a step back this season, similar to the team in Alberta they traded their big names with last summer.
Meanwhile, Boston is on a mission to get Bergeron one more ring, it seems. The goaltending tandem of Swayman/Ullmark has been elite to the point that they alone would probably have caused me to pick the Bruins in this series. Then you look at the team’s record, and realize how good they are. The President’s Trophy curse may come back sometime this playoffs, but it’s not gonna be in round one, unless the Panthers conduct a miracle (and maybe get solid goaltending.) Boston in five.
Toronto/Tampa Bay: Toronto in 7
Did I pick the Leafs here because I really want a Boston/Toronto rematch (again) in round two? Maybe. But there’s reason to my decision here, I promise.
Tampa Bay, here we are again. The powerhouse Lightning’s run through the league continues in 2023, as expected. The core is still mainly together, and there’s no reason to believe that Tampa is anything other than a real threat here in round one. There’s plenty to say about their scoring, the incredible goaltending, and so on. But we know about what Tampa’s got. So why Toronto?
If you look past the curse that the world has held over Leafs fans for years now, and look purely at the team matchup here — there’s real reason to believe Toronto could actually win a series this year. Is it going to be a Columbus-style annihilation of the Lightning, circa 2019? I would bet a lot of money against that. But Toronto has what they need this year. The forward core is still together and ready. The defense has been bolstered to the point they match up favourably against Tampa Bay. The goaltending, though it had a concerning start, has steadied.
I think there’s a real chance the Maple Leafs come out of this tilt on the top. It won’t be easy, and there’s a very good chance for either of these teams here. There’s a reason I took the Leafs in seven. It should be a good one. And oh, the thought of a Leafs/Bruins round two matchup… now that sounds fun.
Carolina/New York (Islanders): Carolina in 6
Hey, look, both New York teams made the dance this year! Welcome back to the party, Islanders fans. I’m sorry you barely squeezed in here, just to face the Hurricanes. Let’s get into it.
The Islanders got in at the eleventh hour — thanks mostly to the Penguins faltering at the finish line. But don’t count out New York, they’re still a good team. The goaltending of Ilya Sorokin has solidified even more than previously — he’s been really good. He’s also the main reason I’ve given the Islanders a few wins here. The scoring and defense is still good too, don’t get me wrong.
But the Canes are back here again, and I have no reason to believe they are going to have much trouble here in round one. The big boys in Aho (yes, there’s one per team in this matchup — get used to that), Svechnikov and Necas have been good all year, and the defense (helped now thanks to Brent Burns, who would’ve thought) is still sturdy. The goaltending three-way of Andersen/Raanta and Pyotr Kochetkov all provided good backing in net. Canes in six.
New York (Rangers)/New Jersey: New York in 7
This is setting up to be the must-watch series of the bunch this round. The Rangers are still the Rangers — and are probably even better than last year. The Devils are back, and in a big way.
New Jersey has seen big growth this year. Jack Hughes has positioned himself as the star of the team, and his brother Luke is in Newark with him now too. Hischer, Bratt and Hamilton, the other big names, all had good and healthy seasons. The goaltending of Vanecek, Blackwood and Schmid all were solid, though Blackwood’s numbers were a bit worse for wear. The Devils are a very good team. It’s a shame they’re running in to the Rangers in round one.
Oh New York, New York. The Rangers are back, and they’re terrifying. I thought this team may have been good enough last season to get to the finals. Then they went and added Tarasenko and Kane, just as a treat. The goaltending of Shesterkin is still Vezina-level. The defense is still elite. Everything about this team screams deep playoff run. I like the Devils a lot, but I don’t think they will take this in the end. Rangers in seven, lock it in.
Well, there it is. My picks are locked in for round one, and I feel… questionable, about them. I think these playoffs are set to be a real exciting one. Lots of opportunities for big upsets, great rivalries and more. It’s the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Sit back, relax, and let’s have fun.
