Tradition Returns — Predicting Round One of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs
If you’re a friend, or a regular reader, you’ll be used to seeing this — just like last year, I’m here to share my predictions for the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Similar to 2023, my predictions for this postseason feature a couple necessary upsets. If I had no upset predictions, I would be picking Tampa and Colorado to make it out of the first round… but that’s too easy. Let’s get into the details. As usual, we start out west.
Western Conference
Dallas/Vegas: Vegas in 6
The cap circumvention must remain effective, and Vegas must beat their first round opponents in the Stars. Is that what I want to see happen in this series? Not a chance. I’d love an upset — but there’s no denying the fear that the Golden Knights roster strikes into any team.
Dallas shouldn’t be looked down upon, though. The Stars had another strong regular season, and like in past years, their goaltending was perfectly adequate again. Jake Oettinger’s save percentage was just a hair shy of his opponent in gold, so that should be a fairly even match in theory. This prediction is one of my least confident ones. If this goes the other way, I wouldn’t be shocked whatsoever.
A conference finals rematch in the first round, ironically, means that there’s a decent chance a separate team from the west may have an easier path to the finals this year. Just food for thought.
Winnipeg/Colorado: Winnipeg in 6
The funny thing is, while this feels like I’m picking an upset by choosing the Jets, they did finish ahead of Colorado in the regular season standings, albeit by a hair.
Why the Jets? Well, excluding my bias — which you’ll note from looking at my bracket, isn’t really worth a lot, clearly — Winnipeg has goaltending that can steal wins. Sure, you can talk about the Dubois trade, and how well that looks now. Or about the terrific growth from younger players, and continued excellence from the usuals like Scheifele, Morrissey and the rest. But Hellebuyck/Brossoit is a combination that should be feared.
Of course, it’s hard to count out the Avalanche. Nathan MacKinnon forgot how to not score all season, and that’s just one piece of the still-fantastic core that made Colorado a playoff pick before this regular season even started. But, like with Winnipeg, it’s all about the goaltending in this one for me.
Alex Georgiev finished the regular season with a save percentage of less than .900. You could argue that says more about how good the rest of the team around him is. Watch out for the Avs looking to their backup if things go south, as Justus Annunen has quietly been pretty darn good.
I’m taking Winnipeg in this series, and I fully expect a bloodbath. Whoever gets through this series gets the prize of facing the winner of last year’s conference finals. No pressure.
Vancouver/Nashville: Vancouver in 5
I still remember watching the Canuck playoff runs over a decade ago. Seeing Luongo, the Sedins, Burrows and the rest all walk out with U2 blaring in Rogers Arena. Those were the days. And I’m not even a Canucks fan. It’s about time they’re here.
What isn’t there to like about Vancouver? The defense is in good form — I guess having a quarterback in Quinn Hughes helps quite a bit there. But the rest of the D core is good too. The forward talent has been terrific. The fears of Elias Pettersson leaving were squashed before they could heat up. The Canucks are, from all there is to judge on from the regular season, the real deal.
Why am I giving Nashville a game in this series? It’s simple, really. Jusse Saros remains an elite goaltender, and can absolutely steal a win. Aside from him, the Predators are a team that’s a bit of a surprise to see here, but a welcome surprise. I don’t expect much, from them, but you never know.
Edmonton/LA: Edmonton in 6
Should I just copy and paste my blurb from my prediction for this series from the past couple years? It’s essentially the same.
The Oilers, after a rough start to the regular season — and I mean, a rough start — made a coaching change, and it worked wonders. Edmonton caught fire quick, and never looked back. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisatl each had another terrific season, as expected. Stuart Skinner took over the goaltending duties after the Jack Campbell experiment officially fell flat, and he’s been perfectly adequate.
And on the Kings’ side, Kopitar remains a very solid captain, Kempe and Fiala both had very good years, both just barely missing out on thirty goals. Did you know Trevor Moore actually hit thirty goals this year? It’s weird. The Kings leading goal scorer is Trevor Moore. I know. Doesn’t feel right. You know what else feels wrong? The theft the Kings suffered in Winnipeg when they traded Vilardi, Iafallo and Kupari for one Pierre-Luc Dubois, who proceeded to perform exactly how everyone feared he would for the price tag they paid.
Cam Talbot had a very good year in Los Angeles in net, as did David Rittich. I’m a bit surprised how well they did all season, honestly. But I can’t pick them when it’s the Oilers running into them over and over. It’s hard to pick any goaltender to stop that offense.
Eastern Conference
Florida/Tampa Bay: Florida in 7
The Battle of Florida is so back, and I’m all in on it. A rivalry playoff series never fails to impress, and there’s no reason to doubt this one will kick ass, as it has the past couple of seasons.
Why Florida? The secret is out — I’m a Paul Maurice fan. He’s not likely to win the Jack Adams this year, mainly because of Vancouver being where they are — but he’s an integral part of that franchise doing well. I guess the players are pretty good, too. But you already know about the Panthers. They’re the defending conference champions that couldn’t quite get over the hump last year. I expect them to come in guns blazing this time. Nothing makes you want to win quite like getting to the finals just to lose to, of all teams, Vegas.
I know, the Lightning’s downfall is never going to happen. But it has to eventually, right? Kucherov’s incredible season was a big headline, but it covered up the fact that the rest of the team had what I would describe as “just good” seasons. Excluding Point and Stamkos, the team’s scoring feels a bit lacking to me. That doesn’t mean the Lightning can’t be terrifying, though. They have the championship pedigree, and it’s no secret.
If this series somehow doesn’t go the distance, it will be a disappointment for hockey fans everywhere. Regardless, I expect a good one out of these two teams.
Boston/Toronto: Boston in 7
Normally, I’d apologize to Leafs fans for this predictions. But funny enough, I get the feeling that most of them feel the same about this matchup. Toronto was good all year, helped mightily by Auston Matthews nearly scoring seventy (!!!) goals. But if you look past that, this team performed at a level I’d describe as “yeah, I guess.” This team was a lock for the playoffs before the puck dropped on the pre-season. But what goalie are you picking? Because none of them are particularly appealing.
It’s especially tough not to pick Boston when, regardless of who decides to retire on this Bruins team, this franchise continues to look incredible. David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy and the rest of the core remain great. The duo of Ullmark & Swayman are still one of the best tandems out there. Good luck beating them.
This series has to go seven of course, because it’s Boston/Toronto. The hockey gods will have it no other way.
NY Rangers/Washington: NY Rangers in 5
This matchup is simply unfair to Washington… at least I think it is. I, however, never doubt the power of Alex Ovechkin and his ability to be a force in a series like a goaltender. It’s a shame the goaltender in the Rangers’ net is who he is, because that’s about the only person I’d expect to stop even Ovi.
I’m not sure what to say about the Capitals besides Ovechkin. There’s some youth to like for the future there, no doubt. But the focus now is on the chase for the goals record, and nothing else. Sadly, I don’t see a chase for a playoff run in the near future.
Similarly, I don’t have much about the Rangers besides the obvious — the team is elite, still. Shesterkin is still one of the NHL’s top goalies. The scoring is still there and still, well, scoring. The defense is equally fantastic. All New York has to do is make a deep run. They have the pieces, in theory. This is, also in theory, an easy starting point.
Carolina/NY Islanders: Carolina in 6
I really, really like the Carolina Hurricanes, especially in this matchup. It doesn’t help that the Islanders are barely a playoff team, similar to the Caps.
For the past couple seasons, the playoff runs in Carolina have ended early, and the reason most come up with has been the same — the depth isn’t there. They need more scoring power. That’s where this year’s deadline comes in. Jake Guentzel, Penguins playoff star, is in the lineup. That’s the best kind of help you could ask for, even if the cost was a bit high. The rest of the core remains strong, but the time is ticking still. It’s time for a run from the Hurricanes.
Patrick Roy can’t take you all the way this time, Islanders. I can’t wait to somehow get this totally wrong, as he straps on his pads and takes over in net himself. I like New York, don’t get me wrong. But I don’t see them standing up against Carolina and winning, unfortunately.
There you have it. Round one, fight! I don’t feel that confident in some of these picks… but that’s the beauty of the playoffs. Anything can happen. It’s time for dreams to come true for one team. Enjoy.
